Every year (almost), I pick my winners among categories where I've seen the majority of nominees. These reflect only who I'd vote to give the Oscar to if I could, and not an attempt to predict who will win (though I may talk a little bit about predictions as well). In the past my picks sometimes coincided with the Academy's selections, but they can easily diverge. Last year, I skipped this exercise entirely because it was such an awful year in cinema. With a bit better year in 2025, I'm picking 13 categories.
Best Picture
In my Best Picture rankings, I made it clear I thought Hamnet was by far the strongest film in 2025. It is crafted extremely well, tells a story that is meaningful, and connects the audience to its subject matter in an expert manner. The emotional crescendo of Hamnet, with Anne Hathaway realizing her husband has written Hamlet to fulfill so many of their son's lost dreams and to make the world mourn him as they do, was by far the most profoundly powerful moment I experienced during any movie in 2025.
While I think Hamnet is the clear pick for the top award, I would be happy for The Secret Agent to win and would be fine if voters thought the excellence of work that went into Sinners compensated for the flaws in its storytelling. I can even see a world in which Frankenstein pulls off the upset. I will be actively disappointed if buzzy but ultimately lacking options like Marty Supreme or One Battle After Another takes the top prize.
Best Directing
Chloe Zhao made quite the comeback from the low of directing Marvel's Eternals (a film that no one was clamoring for, didn't really fit Zhao's sensibilities, featured incredibly generic CGI villains, and was promptly forgotten by Marvel except in one follow up film that was also their worst entry in their entire franchise). Zhao works best when given the space to create atmosphere and establish her world and her characters' situations. That initial slow burn typically provides significant payoff as she gathers those threads together, and with Hamnet it's no different. She is a compelling voice in today's cinema.
If Zhao does not win, I could see Ryan Coogler winning for helming Sinners. Any other winner would just be an embarrassment for the Academy.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
I didn't get around to screening Blue Moon, so am not considering Ethan Hawke. Of the remaining four nominees, Michael B. Jordan is my pick. He does a great job holding together Sinners as a cohesive story and playing identical (yet differentiable) twin brothers. It is rare for him to appear on screen without you having a good idea immediately of which twin you're following. This isn't even his strongest performance, but it's the first one that's been nominated, and it should give him his first win.
If he doesn't win, I'd hope the statue goes to Wagner Moura who coincidentally also plays multiple rolls in The Secret Agent, though not to the same extent as Jordan. Both Leonardo DiCaprio and Timothee Chalamet have received buzz this Oscar season, but neither role is some of their best work as they both play highly one note characters in significantly flawed films.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley is as close to a slam dunk winner as any this year. She is the emotional core of an expertly crafted emotional film. Her Agnes evolves from an independent woman finding love to a mother mourning the passing of one of her children, and that evolution is clear on the screen in her performance. You can watch the growth and maturation of the character as the film progresses, which is a testament to Buckley's command of her character. It's truly a special performance.
I have not watched Rose Byrne's nor Kate Hudson's films and as a result did not include them in my consideration. Renate Reinsve and Emma Stone both do admirable jobs in their roles, but their characters do not have the same richness that Agnes/Anne Hathaway has, and Buckley gave the performance of a lifetime with the rich material she was given.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
As I noted in my writeup of One Battle After Another, Sean Penn is really the only reason that film works. His Colonel Steven J. Lockjaw is difficult to watch at times, by design. It's the kind of role that an actor can't approach conservatively and still succeed, and Penn abandons all pretense of normality from the get go. Lockjaw is disturbing, repellent, and malevolent, and Penn brings all of that to the surface repeatedly.
Of the other nominees, Stellan Skarsgard has the easiest time in a role that easily could have been among the Best Actor nominees, but I don't think there was enough richness to the role to win Supporting Actor even with that advantage. Jacob Elordi does a great job bringing humanity to The Creature in Frankenstein, but it's not a role that provides a lot of richness to mine by its actor. Benicio del Toro and Delroy Lindo both play fun, crowd-favorite characters, but neither role makes a significant impact to their respective films.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
This is not the strongest category in this year's race. I did not nor do I ever plan to see Weapons, so I'm not considering Amy Madigan. Of the remaining nominees, only Wunmi Mosaku wowed me with her work as Annie in Sinners, who brought humanity to the film through her relationship with Smoke and their shared mourning of their child and who also was the guide for the heroes in understanding what they were up against in the vampires. None of the other nominees I watched had that same kind of character richness, and she played the role well.
Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
I went back and forth multiple times between Ryan Coogler for Sinners and Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value (I did not watch Blue Moon nor It Was Just an Accident). Ultimately, I went with Sinners because I thought the script captured the best energy and provided useful insight into each character in a compact manner compared to its competition. I think I made it clear in my Best Picture rankings why I think Marty Supreme was obviously lacking in its script.
Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
This was perhaps the hardest category for me to call. I ended up opting for Chloe Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell in adapting O'Farrell's novel. The emotional punch of the film can, like with Shakespeare's plays, be found in its words at least as much in its staging. I also thought Gullermo del Toro (Frankenstein) and Clint Bentley and Greg Kewdar (Train Dreams) did remarkable jobs bringing their subjects to screen, though del Toro did take a few liberties with his material. Will Tracy did a wonderful job with Bugonia as well, and establishes a third tier all its own. Overall, with the exception of One Battle After Another, this is an extremely strong category this year.
Best Animated Feature Film
I went into my Animated Feature watch assuming I'd end up giving my pick to KPop Demon Hunters, the only one of this year's nominees I watched prior to its nomination. I won't at all be salty if KPop Demon Hunters does indeed take home the statue for bringing humanity to what could have easily been just a money grab taking advantage of the wave of popularity that KPop enjoys here in the 2020s. However, Little Amelie or the Character of Rain completely disarmed me with its story, its ingenuity, and its performances. It brings a certain degree of magical realism to the table, presenting a complex and textured emotional story of growing up and discovering the world. It's also absolutely beautiful in its rending onscreen. I'll still be happy if KPop Demon Hunters wins, but it's Little Amelie that I've been pointing all of my friends to watch.
Of the other nominees, Arco is a worthwhile viewing that brings a certain amount of magic to the screen both in its story and the humanity of its characters. Zootopia 2 is a perfectly fine animated film, but it doesn't really bring anything to the table we haven't already seen. And Elio is one of Pixar's weakest entrants in its history.
Best International Feature Film
This is cheating a bit because I've only watched two of the five nominees for this category. But I just wanted to take the opportunity to give The Secret Agent the roses it deserves. Number two in my overall Best Picture rankings, The Secret Agent is a perfect example of what great cinema is and should be about: the capturing on film of great performances bringing a strong and meaningful story to life and connecting with the viewer. If there's any justice to this world, The Secret Agent should win this category.
Best Music (Original Score)
I've had to remind myself not to just default to Alexandre Desplat (nominated this year for Frankestein) every year. His compositions just hit my sweet spot, and I've liked his movie scores for years now. But I recognize it's not just about what sounds best to me but also what serves its film the best. Given that admonition, I've had to go with Ludwig Goransson winning yet again, this time for Sinners. Music is central to the theme and story of Sinners and Goransson's score holds up its part of the bargain. It is as much a character in the film as any role played by an actor.
Best Music (Original Song)
Is this even a question? "Golden" (by Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, 24, Ido, and Teddy Park) is a great song in and of itself. It plays a critical role in the plot of KPop Demon Hunters, a property that too few Original Song winners have these days. But it also embodies its themes well -- it's a difficult song to successfully sing, as attested by Elizabeth Zharoff of The Charismatic Voice channel. Ejae conquers the wide range and difficult note progressions of the song she herself wrote with as much gusto as the animated trio Huntrix had when exiling demons from Earth. I'm looking forward to yet another stellar live performance at the ceremony.
Best Casting
I'm taking a bit of a flier here, as Casting is a new category and I'm not sure I have a firm grasp on its ins and outs. After considering all the nominees, I have gone with Francine Maisler for Sinners as my inaugural pick. Sinners has a broad cast of characters, and I can't think of a single role that I would have thought should be filled differently. Maisler in particular should be credited with the excellent match between Miles Caton and his role of Sammie.
Honestly, I'm still trying to feel my way through this category, so I could accept almost any of the nominees winning. The one exception would be Jennifer Venditti, whose decision to cast Kevin O'Leary as anything in Marty Supreme should have disqualified her from even being nominated.
Best Production Design
This seems an exceptionally strong collection of nominees this year, and I frankly wouldn't be surprised if any of them won the statue. However, I chose Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau for Frankenstein due to the amazing gothic world the two created and put on screen. The props, locations, and sets are all uniformly excellent and immersive. Frankenstein is a visually stunning film, and it starts with all of the physical pieces and locations put on screen.
Best Cinematography
This was another strong set of nominees. I originally had Dan Laustsen for Frankenstein in this spot, but after deciding for Frankenstein in Production Design, I began to wonder if that didn't have an impact on my impression of the quality of that film's cinematography. I will be happy if it still wins, but instead I am opting for Autumn Durald Arkapaw for Sinners. Sinners is another extremely beautiful film and had the challenge of most of the film's runtime occurring at night or in the dark. There was never a moment where the action on screen was muddled or difficult to follow, and overall Arkapaw captures the beauty of the film's environment incredibly well. The other nominees did stellar work as well, with a special nod to Adolpho Veloso for making Train Dreams so gorgeous on screen, and who was my penciled-in option for this award until I had the chance to take in both Frankenstein and Sinners.
That's it for my picks this year. I don't have strong opinions on Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Film Editing, or Sound. I didn't watch enough of the Visual Effects nominees to make a selection worthwhile, and I have not seen any of the nominees in the three short films categories nor the Documentary Feature Film category.
Will the Academy agree with me? Who knows -- they do seem to usually get it right, but I have been disappointed before. One will have to watch to know which.
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